June home index fell again

Click: 1151 Date: 2017-08-18 09:37:00 Information Source:


By the Ministry of Commerce Industry Development Division, China Building Materials Circulation Association jointly released the national building materials home prosperity index BHI June national building materials household sentiment index (BHI) was 99.32, the chain fell 1.03 points, down 6.41 points. National sales of building materials over the scale of June sales of 917.8 billion yuan, down 1.65%, down 10.41%. The first half of 2015 total sales of 497.99 billion yuan, down 5.90%.

China Building Materials Circulation Association executive vice president Qin Zhanxiao from the expert point of view on the current BHI data interpretation: June national home furnishing market performance is still weak, BHI index fell again. At this point, the national building materials home market in the first half of the overall performance of the downturn, more than the size of building materials store sales in the first half of the cumulative decline of 5.90%.

The specific analysis is as follows:

First, the analysis of the national real estate market, according to the National Bureau of Statistics data show that in June the real estate development prosperity index (referred to as "national housing climate index") was 92.63, 0.2 points higher than the previous month. January-June, commercial housing sales area of ??50.24 million square meters, an increase of 3.9%, 1-5 month fell 0.2%. Among them, sales of commercial housing 3,425.9 billion yuan, an increase of 10.0%, 6.9 percentage points increase in growth rate. It can be seen that with the continued accumulation of good policies in the property market, the market demand continued to release, the transaction has been warmer, the overall property market showed warming trend. However, BHI trend has not echoed, on the one hand this and the national building materials market by the impact of the real estate market lag; the other side, in June throughout the country into the rainy season, the home decoration have a certain impact, which from this month BHI Sub-index "popularity index" chain fell 2.95 points can be a glimpse. In addition, it should be noted that this year's BHI index of the "employment rate index" fell the most, and compared with the same period last year fell 33.07 points. We can see the market downturn led to weak business, the industry to create employment capacity has declined.

Throughout the first half of 2015, from the "2014-2015BHI and the national housing prosperity index comparison example map" can be seen in the first half of the national housing boom index all the way down in June and rebounded slightly. Which in 2014 with the national real estate market in the same period have some similarities (in 2014 the national housing climate index since February month by month decline in June from the significant decline in the decline). Similarly, the first half of the BHI trend similar to the same period last year and is located in the last year, only May BHI slightly over 100, showing the market bursts of chill. But in June BHI index in the "manager confidence index" absolute value of 55.85 (higher than 50 optimistic about the market outlook, less than 50 to see the weak market), although the low but the market still have confidence in the future, the national building materials home market will not Crash. It is worth mentioning that the first half of BHI compared with previous years did not peak, indicating that the market is still toward the "off-season is not short, the season is not busy," the market shape changes in the future market trend or will become more gentle. Half of the trend comparison can also be found, BHI decline rate is lower than the "national housing climate index", was down "scissors poor" shape, indicating that the building materials industry by the stock of real estate and then maintain the proportion of maintenance is increasing.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics data, in June China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 50.2%, for four consecutive months slightly higher than the critical point, but still near the historical low, indicating that China's economic operation was slow to stabilize Of the trend, but there are still some downward pressure. Coupled with the future of the real estate market is still facing greater pressure to inventory, supply and demand sides increasingly rational, the possibility of a substantial rebound in the future, it is expected in the next few months, the national building materials market is difficult to have outstanding performance, or will still run low The Suggested enterprises to adapt to the market situation, to seize the new normal market under the new opportunities, transformation and upgrading to achieve better development.